ANALYTICAL POLICY
By Juan Fernando
Perdomo * GOOD NEWS ... YOU FEEL! Leo
the newspaper headlines and see that there is good news. Not everything is black:
inflation for this year is 3.82%, experts say. This is great, because we are staying at levels similar to the first world economies.
domestic product (GDP) will grow to a level of 3.54%. Although correcting the INEGI to be around 3%.
Well, that's better than nothing and that the average bad that we have, but it will not for long. United States will grow at 3.58%. Will there be any difference between them and us? But almost as if we grow!
The dollar will not exceed by far the level of 11 pesos. Walk at 11.12 pesos per dollar. It has been maintained.
Interest rates in CETES to 28 days, will be the order of 9.33% at the end of 2005. This figure is very similar to last year.
Insured grow in 418.000. This shows that more jobs this year. In 2004 there were only 319.000 workers.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) will be approximately $ 14.363 million dollars.
The oil fund was increased to the middle of this year at $ 626 million pesos. Well, that reflects the high price of oil is paying off. Already has a fund of $ 12.234 million pesos.
The country's reserves exceeded U.S. $ 67.000 million.
Yep, news is also good news, though ... Do you feel?
Why ask?
Because, despite these encouraging figures, about a million Mexicans are still going to the United States each year. And this has increased in recent months.
spoken of almost 20.000 billion dollars in annual remittances sent in 2005 by our migrants.
It requires more than 400,000 jobs per year. Mentioned more than a million.
To achieve an economy that gives us quality of life and opportunities for all requires a growth of over 5% of GDP.
11 pesos to the dollar does not help us we can sell our products abroad as the trade deficit will be more than 9.000 million dollars.
field, "which is also our" was a sharp drop from 47% in temporary employment, with a deficit of 332.000 seats.
And "our oil" which has a large surplus of 220.000 million but generated only have 12,000 in stocks held for the future, it can not be used for anything else than for the case of lower prices ... but Other surpluses ... Where are they?
The questions, therefore, should be: a.
I have my job security. Furthermore, do I have stable jobs and well paid? B.
"I enjoy good health care in public hospitals I pay? Are there medicines that need my family? Does my insurance popular? C.
"Education is supported by the government and improved? D.
Do the roads have been upgraded my status? Are they better? E.
Do you care for my basic needs is a priority of government? F.
Am I lucky to have a government that cares about me? G
Did it improve my level of life? Is there security? Is there less corruption?
h. Have I benefited from the high price of "our oil"? I.
Social and productive programs of government it really benefit my business? Do I get a full-time and support? J.
"Low inflation is reflected in gas and electricity bills low? K
These "good news", it really is good news for me? For
perception of each may vary but, for my part, everyone keeps telling me that the situation is difficult. Some tell me it's the most difficult in years.
macroeconomics right. It does not depend only the autonomous decisions of our executive. International funds that support us put their conditions have to be respected, but also the price of oil has affected so that Mexico is not in the "planchette."
have to be honest, macroeconomics should be controlled, but that is only a part.
The other is that NO need to tell us we're good ... but it sits!
* Juan Fernando Perdomo is a graduate of Tec de Monterrey.
public servant, businessman and politician (jperdomo@infosel.net.mx)
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